Florent Brones' video on our investment strategy recommendations for April
Even if volatility is expected to remain high, we are now focusing on our positive view for stock markets over the medium-term.
Volatility is expected to remain high. At present, markets are concerned about the risk of a trade war between the United States and China. But other sources of volatility exist (an acceleration in inflation, and thus rate hikes, the political risk in Europe, debt levels in the emerging world), which nevertheless seem manageable, in our view, as fundamentals are solid overall.
We are now focusing on our positive view for stock markets over the medium-term (12 months) for three fundamental unchanged reasons: rising corporate profits in 2018 and 2019, small expected interest rate hikes, and, lastly, moderate stock market valuations, with the exception of the US market, which is expensive by historical standards. Savings flows into equities, at the expense of bond investments, will continue.
Prudence maintained on bond markets. In the current phase of doubt on financial markets, long rates have fallen significantly, despite the Fed delivering on an increase in US policy rates, as expected.