Florent Brones' video on our investment strategy recommendations for May
Positive fundamentals have taken centre-stage.
Trade tensions are less present because negotiations have resumed. The risks have faded, but have not disappeared. Volatility may intensify again at any time, either for geopolitical reasons or due to rising inflation.
We continue to focus on our positive view on stock markets in the medium term (12 months) for three unchanged fundamental reasons: an improvement in corporate profits in 2018 and 2019, the small rate hikes expected, and finally, moderate equity valuations, except in the US market, which is expensive compared with historical standards. Savings flows into equities, at the expense of bond investments, will continue.
Prudence on bond markets. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds reached the 3% psychological level and are set to take a pause in the short term. We believe the Fed will make four more rate hikes of 25bps each, including one in 2019.