INSIGHT OF THE WEEK
Connect every Monday morning and get our weekly digest on what happened last week and what to expect for this week. Click on the image below to listen to the most recent podcast.
THIS WEEK'S PODCAST: We’re half way there……? Don’t worry we aren’t living on a prayer!
LISTEN TO OUR EARLIER WEEKLY PODCASTS
Upgrade Indonesia equities to overweight
Riding on the first in and first out theme, we upgrade Indonesia equities equities to overweight. Our CIO Asia analyses how Indonesia is on the road to recovery from the pandemic.
Analysing the Fed Policy Shift Announcement: The Fed Chair Powell Re-releasing that Prince Song as “When Doves (Cry) Sing"
Our CIO Asia Prashant Bhayani examines the latest Fed announcement, an important indicator of future policy rate expectations, ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Cash is not king!
Prashant Bhayani reviews the FOMC minutes and the implications for cash in an investment portfolio.
Rise in Real Yields leads to Unwind in Some Key Trades
The Russian government's announcement about a covid-19 vaccine acted as a catalyst for investors to unwind some popular trades.
US-China tensions escalate further
Grace Tam explains why the latest escalation in US measures may affect market sentiment while the short-term impact on China's real economy will be limited
July FOMC meeting and Outlook for the September Meeting
Prashant Bhayani discusses the July FOMC meeting and the outlook for the much anticipated upcoming meeting in September.
Greater EU fiscal integration turbocharges the Euro. The Trend is Your Friend….
A significant step towards greater EU fiscal integration that could turbocharge the Euro. Prashant Bhayani explains
The Case for North Asia Equities: China/Taiwan equities, time to deal or fold your cards?
Prashant Bhayani explains why the long-term fundamentals for China and HongKong equities remain intact.
What are the Mid-Year Risks?: How do we Position Portfolios: Strengthen Your Core! Barbell Strategy
Prashant Bhayani discusses three key risks to the global markets in the latter half of the year, plus how to best position your portfolios to maximise returns.
An Update on Brexit and the UK Equities
An update on Brexit negotiations and the impact on UK equities.
Four reasons to fade the dollar in the second half of the year
Re-opening Aiding Recovery, how Bad is the Second Wave? And Central Banks Continue to have the Markets Back…
This week Prashant Bhayani discusses economies reopening, the impact of a “second wave” and major announcements by central banks.
Why Has the Dollar Weakened as We Forecasted? Where Does It Go From Here?
Prashant Bhayani explains why has the dollar weakened and our outlook on it.
2020 Mid-Year Investment Themes: Where to Focus
What themes do we want to refocus on for the second half of the year?. These themes are even more relevant post the Covid-crisis. In many cases the megatrend themes and deglobalisation are being accelerated by the crisis.
To Deal or not To Deal that is the Question
The US-China Phase1 trade agreement is not a done deal yet. Prashant Bhayani lists four possible scenarios that could make or break it.
Reading the Tea Leaves: Takeaways from China’s NPC meeting
Five top takeaways from China’s most recent NPC meeting.
Why the Federal Reserve Not Going Negative is a Positive...
Why the Federal Reserve not going negative is a positive: This week Prashant Bhayani lists the reasons why the Fed is unlikely to pursue a negative interest rate policy.
To “4G” or Not to “5G”, That is Certainly NOT the Question!
As Covid-19 accelerates trends in 5G (one of our #investment themes for 2020), Prashant Bhayani explains why that’s all the more reason you may want it in your portfolio.
Where to Look in Asia in the medium term?
Which two Asian markets offer medium term potential for investors? With the global economy in recession and further downward earnings revisions expected, there are some bright spots.
Do we Need to Go Lower Before We Go Higher?
After the sharp rally from March lows, Prashant Bhayani lists 3 factors supporting (the much needed) equity market consolidation in the short-term.
The Incremental Opening
Prashant Bhayani discusses the gradual opening up expected in parts of the US and in Europe, the market rally and the unprecedented action taken by the Fed.
How this Crisis is Accelerating Mega Technology Trends
Prashant Bhayani explains why advanced technologies – like, 5G and Artificial Intelligence - will see rapid gains and potentially more investment capital post crisis.
Are We There Yet?
Prashant Bhayani discusses the impact of the fiscal and monetary stimulus on financial markets, and what to look for to see a reversal of market trends
Massive market deleveraging & short-term USD funding stress
Grace Tam discusses market volatility and the measures being taken by the Fed and the ECB amid the massive market deleveraging and short-term USD funding stress.
When Two Black Swans Collide...
Following the worst market crash since 1987 and the ensuing volatility, Grace Tam outlines our base case scenario – a U-shaped recovery for global growth – and its impact on asset classes.
There Will Be Blood…When …will the Wound Heal?
With oil prices nose-diving as OPEC and Russia fail to reach a deal, We examine the supply and demand side scenarios, and the potential impact from the disagreement.
The First Cut is Deepest....
After the sharp unwinding in the markets, Prashant Bhayani shares his thoughts on what’s priced in and what should you do now.
Quantquake Coming? Feeling a Few Tremors…
Prashant Bhayani talks about record bond inflows, growth overcrowding in equities and the possibility of a short-term unwinding in the markets.
What’s Initial Impact from the Coronavirus?
Prashant Bhayani examines the real-time data, and shares what to expect in terms of short-term disruption.
Oil’s Well that Ends Well Again?
Prashant Bhayani focusses on the global oil market this week by examining the demand-supply equation and how it may evolve. He signs off by sharing our medium-term outlook.
An Update on Coronavirus
Prashant Bhayani takes a look at lessons from SARS and examines where’s it different.
Finally….the phase one deal is signed
Get the lowdown on the trade deal and outlines some key areas of progress.
Oil’s Well that End’s Well, Again?
Prashant Bhayani discusses global supply and demand fundamentals for oil, and shares our outlook.
2019 in Review
The year Equities, Bonds, Gold and Oil all had double digit returns!
Lucky Friday the 13th!
2 major risk events in markets, UK election results & US-China Phase One trade deal, finally came to a head
4 Events and a Holiday?
A quick preview of the major, upcoming events in the market and the possible outcomes.
Impacts of trade war: is the worst behind us?
3 Reasons for the Risk-On Rally
US-China Trade: The “Phase One” trade deal. Why it matters?
Grace Tam explains why it’s a breakthrough and also shares our updated forecast for the global equities market.
Fed-Pause: The Federal Reserve rate cuts, what are the implications for markets.
This week Prashant Bhayani shares his views on the Federal Reserve rate cuts and the implications for markets.
Are Chinese property developers’ funding concerns overdone?
Restrictions by Chinese regulators on bond issuance by some developers has triggered concerns but the worries may be unfounded.
Is Brexit approaching the endgame?
Have chances of a “hard Brexit” significantly reduced?
Trade Truce... What Next?
The topic this week is a review of the trade truce finalised last Friday, and its potential implications on the global fiscal policy.
Don’t forget to focus on the red dot for defensive yield!
Singapore’s economy has been buffeted by the global slowdown but, as Prashant Bhayani explains, it continues to offer attractive potential to investors
Drone Attack - The impact of Saudi Arabian oil facilities attack is short-lived thus far…
The impact of drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities is short-lived so far but what can we expect next? Prashant Bhayani shares what do we think of oil prices in the short and medium term.
After a hawkish cut, the Federal Reserve rate expectations align directly with BNP Paribas forecasts
Here's quick review by Prashant Bhayani on the Federal Reserve meeting, the implications arising from it and what’s priced in by the markets.
China Accelerates “Mid-Autumn Gifts” to the Market
Prashant Bhayani summarises some of the important initiatives that were announced in China this month.
Can Central Banks be Super-Heroes? Will it lead to Currency Wars?
With the end of the trade truce, the spotlight has burned bright again on the central banks as rate cuts accelerated around the globe. But can this lead to currency wars?
Why Hong Kong’s long-term fundamentals and liquidity remain resilient
9 key reasons why Hong Kong’s long-term fundamentals and liquidity remain resilient
Follow Twitter not Jackson Hole
As trade rhetoric overshadowed the Fed Summit last week, Prashant Bhayani reviews the takeaways and the market reaction.
Will Gold continue to shine?
4 reasons why gold will continue to shine (and why investors should accumulate gold on dips).
A global synchronized monetary easing is playing out
After the Fed delivered its first rate cut since 2008, central banks across countries have followed suit. Will this global monetary easing be sufficient to revive growth?
Trade Truce Ends with a Tweet
As the announcement to impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 bn of China’s imports ended a month-long truce, Prashant Bhayani highlights the takeaways and the key things to watch tactically.
Can the Federal Reserve Help Extend the Longest Economic Cycle in History?
Discover why European Equities have had the best start of the year since 1998
Cash is Not King! Cash is a Drag…This week we revisit how cash can be a drag in an investor’s portfolio.
In a year of strong year-to-date returns in both bonds & equities, Prashant Bhayani discusses why cash can be a drag in an investor’s portfolio. His mantra: Stay diversified, stay invested!
Gold: Continue to Follow the Yellow Brick Road!
The trillion dollar question after the G-20 meetings: How long will trade tensions last?
FOMC Meeting: Powell throws in the towel
Slow We Go! An update on the US economy
A quick update on the US economy following the weaker economic data and changing rate expectations.
Which countries may benefit the most from US-China trade tensions? Prashant Bhayani shares his views
Why Treasury yields dropped sharply last week? How low can they go?
India gave Prime Minister Narendra Modi a strong second-term mandate. What are the implications for the Indian economy?
Sino-US trade tensions could linger for longer. What are the implications?
As Sino-US trade tensions flare up again, we examine the potential impact of an ongoing tradewar on their respective economies.
Market could be pricing a “trade deal” despite new tariffs kick in
Our Asia CIO dissects the #tradewar scenario for you
Diversification Strategies in May: Stay in May and Diversify Away
In this edition, our Asia CIO points out why this may be an excellent time to diversify your portfolio exposure.
China Update: Taking foot off the pedal but to maintain cruising speed.
Listen to a brief analysis by our Asia CIO after the politburo's review of the country's economy in China
Contrarian Corner: Overweight European Equities
Underweight on European #equities? Maybe, not! The recent fund manager survey largely supports an underweight position however our Asia CIO builds a case for why a contrarian view merits attention.
Better Payrolls Soothe Growth Fears
US job growth remains strong in March, so what does is it mean for interest rates?
The yield curve is inverting! Should we be worried?
Against the background of a sharp drop in Treasury yields, our Asia CIO, discusses the utility of the yield curve as a recession indicator, and more.
The Fed’s dovish surprise triggers growth concerns
Amid rising market worries & falling #US yields, we examine the key reasons behind the announcement and what should investors keep an eye on!
Brexit deadline is near. Deal or no-deal?
In light of growing uncertainty and slowing growth, we look at the possible scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks
In the context of a larger than expected tax cuts in China: Should we stay positive despite strong rebound?
In today’s podcast, we focus on the green shoots of stimulus impact in China.
If you want to understand global market movements focus on FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, not backward looking economic data.
Moving to Short-Term Neutral in Global Equities but what do we think about Asian assets in this context?
In this week's podcast we analyse how Asian equity and bond performance may be affected in the context of slowing US growth.
US Treasury Yields: How Low Can They Go?
US Treasury Yields: How low can they go? We examine the reasons behind the fall of the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.63% last week, and what can we expect going ahead.
Are Emerging Markets starting to shine?
Is the increasing interest in EM assets a trend that will continue?