#Market Strategy — 30.11.2020


Prashant Bhayani, Chief Investment Officer, Asia

Connect every Monday morning to stay updated on what happened in the global markets last week and what to expect this week.

THIS WEEK'S PODCAST: A November to remember for the global markets!



The Market Rallies: Lockdowns, vs. Medium Term Reopening Potential

The markets are oscillating between the vaccine newsflow and medium-term reopening potential vs the near-term weakness in some economies: Prashant Bhayani discusses the impact of the lockdowns and the market euphoria from vaccine news.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


The Vaccine Announcement Heard Around the World

Pfizer vaccine announcement saw the largest relative global value vs. growth outperformance on a day in history: Prashant Bhayani explains why a “barbell” allocation between growth and cyclicals is key to optimising your portfolio.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


US Election - Has the Blue Wave turned into a Blue Ripple? And is Gridlock = Goldilocks…..

The market narrative is now shifting to the positives : Prashant Bhayani discusses the impact of a divided US #Congress on the global markets, post the election result.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Final US Election Preview and Implications of European Lockdowns

With Republicans narrowing the gap in the polls, Prashant Bhayani discusses the battleground states that will likely decide the US election. And also the negative economic impact of the renewed European lockdowns.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Anyone Up for a Singapore Sling?

The Singapore economy is bottoming with the gradual opening of the local domestic economy and helped by a pick-up in the services sector: Prashant Bhayani speaks on the attractive valuations of the Singapore stock market.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


The Skinny on a “Canada or Skinny Free Trade Agreement” vs. WTO rules Brexit

If there’s no progress on Brexit talks by mid-November the probability of a no-deal goes up: Prashant Bhayani outlines the long-term impact on the GDP of the UK and Europe in case of a No Deal, or a “Canada style” deal.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Only Thing we Have to Fear is Fear Itself - The US elections and the global markets

Market volatility already prices uncertainty well beyond the US elections and that offers an opportunity to buy on dips: Prashant Bhayani discusses the outlook for global markets through the lens of the US elections.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Markets Focus on Policy Not Politics

Economic cycles have a far greater influence on global financial markets than politics. However, there are important policy implications of the US Elections. Prashant Bhayani discusses how investors should assess the markets.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Take Advantage of What the Markets Give You! - Sell Dollar, Add to Equities....

While investors continue to wait for a vaccine breakthrough and more US fiscal stimulus to drive markets, Prashant Bhayani explains where to take advantage of opportunities right now.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Warren Buffett is buying Japanese stocks. Should you join him?

Warren Buffet is buying Japanese stocks. Should you be doing the same?

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


We’re half way there……? Don’t worry we aren’t living on a prayer!

We saw a much needed correction in global equities and tech stocks from overbought levels. Is it time to rotate from growth to value? Our Asia CIO discusses portfolio allocation strategies in weathering the volatility ahead.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Upgrade Indonesia equities to overweight

Riding on the first in and first out theme, we upgrade Indonesia equities equities to overweight. Our CIO Asia analyses how Indonesia is on the road to recovery from the pandemic.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Analysing the Fed Policy Shift Announcement: The Fed Chair Powell Re-releasing that Prince Song as “When Doves (Cry) Sing"

Our CIO Asia Prashant Bhayani examines the latest Fed announcement, an important indicator of future policy rate expectations, ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Cash is not king!

Prashant Bhayani reviews the FOMC minutes and the implications for cash in an investment portfolio.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Rise in Real Yields leads to Unwind in Some Key Trades

The Russian government's announcement about a covid-19 vaccine acted as a catalyst for investors to unwind some popular trades.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


US-China tensions escalate further

Grace Tam explains why the latest escalation in US measures may affect market sentiment while the short-term impact on China's real economy will be limited

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


July FOMC meeting and Outlook for the September Meeting

Prashant Bhayani discusses the July FOMC meeting and the outlook for the much anticipated upcoming meeting in September.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Greater EU fiscal integration turbocharges the Euro. The Trend is Your Friend….

A significant step towards greater EU fiscal integration that could turbocharge the Euro. Prashant Bhayani explains

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


The Case for North Asia Equities: China/Taiwan equities, time to deal or fold your cards?

Prashant Bhayani explains why the long-term fundamentals for China and HongKong equities remain intact.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


What are the Mid-Year Risks?: How do we Position Portfolios: Strengthen Your Core! Barbell Strategy

Prashant Bhayani discusses three key risks to the global markets in the latter half of the year, plus how to best position your portfolios to maximise returns.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


An Update on Brexit and the UK Equities

An update on Brexit negotiations and the impact on UK equities.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Four reasons to fade the dollar in the second half of the year

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Re-opening Aiding Recovery, how Bad is the Second Wave? And Central Banks Continue to have the Markets Back…

This week Prashant Bhayani discusses economies reopening, the impact of a “second wave” and major announcements by central banks.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Why Has the Dollar Weakened as We Forecasted? Where Does It Go From Here?

Prashant Bhayani explains why has the dollar weakened and our outlook on it.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


2020 Mid-Year Investment Themes: Where to Focus

What themes do we want to refocus on for the second half of the year?. These themes are even more relevant post the Covid-crisis. In many cases the megatrend themes and deglobalisation are being accelerated by the crisis.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


To Deal or not To Deal that is the Question

The US-China Phase1 trade agreement is not a done deal yet. Prashant Bhayani lists four possible scenarios that could make or break it.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Reading the Tea Leaves: Takeaways from China’s NPC meeting

Five top takeaways from China’s most recent NPC meeting.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Why the Federal Reserve Not Going Negative is a Positive...

Why the Federal Reserve not going negative is a positive: This week Prashant Bhayani lists the reasons why the Fed is unlikely to pursue a negative interest rate policy.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO, Asia


Do we Need to Go Lower Before We Go Higher?

After the sharp rally from March lows, Prashant Bhayani lists 3 factors supporting (the much needed) equity market consolidation in the short-term.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


To “4G” or Not to “5G”, That is Certainly NOT the Question!

As Covid-19 accelerates trends in 5G (one of our #investment themes for 2020), Prashant Bhayani explains why that’s all the more reason you may want it in your portfolio.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Where to Look in Asia in the medium term?

Which two Asian markets offer medium term potential for investors? With the global economy in recession and further downward earnings revisions expected, there are some bright spots.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


The Incremental Opening

Prashant Bhayani discusses the gradual opening up expected in parts of the US and in Europe, the market rally and the unprecedented action taken by the Fed.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


How this Crisis is Accelerating Mega Technology Trends

Prashant Bhayani explains why advanced technologies – like, 5G and Artificial Intelligence - will see rapid gains and potentially more investment capital post crisis.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Are We There Yet?

Prashant Bhayani discusses the impact of the fiscal and monetary stimulus on financial markets, and what to look for to see a reversal of market trends

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Massive market deleveraging & short-term USD funding stress

Grace Tam discusses market volatility and the measures being taken by the Fed and the ECB amid the massive market deleveraging and short-term USD funding stress.

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


When Two Black Swans Collide...

Following the worst market crash since 1987 and the ensuing volatility, Grace Tam outlines our base case scenario – a U-shaped recovery for global growth – and its impact on asset classes.

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


There Will Be Blood…When …will the Wound Heal?

With oil prices nose-diving as OPEC and Russia fail to reach a deal, We examine the supply and demand side scenarios, and the potential impact from the disagreement.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


The First Cut is Deepest....

After the sharp unwinding in the markets, Prashant Bhayani shares his thoughts on what’s priced in and what should you do now.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Quantquake Coming? Feeling a Few Tremors…

Prashant Bhayani talks about record bond inflows, growth overcrowding in equities and the possibility of a short-term unwinding in the markets.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


What’s Initial Impact from the Coronavirus?

Prashant Bhayani examines the real-time data, and shares what to expect in terms of short-term disruption.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Oil’s Well that Ends Well Again?

Prashant Bhayani focusses on the global oil market this week by examining the demand-supply equation and how it may evolve. He signs off by sharing our medium-term outlook.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


An Update on Coronavirus

Prashant Bhayani takes a look at lessons from SARS and examines where’s it different.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Finally….the phase one deal is signed

Get the lowdown on the trade deal and outlines some key areas of progress.

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


Oil’s Well that End’s Well, Again?

Prashant Bhayani discusses global supply and demand fundamentals for oil, and shares our outlook.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


2019 in Review

The year Equities, Bonds, Gold and Oil all had double digit returns!

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Lucky Friday the 13th!

2 major risk events in markets, UK election results & US-China Phase One trade deal, finally came to a head

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


4 Events and a Holiday?

A quick preview of the major, upcoming events in the market and the possible outcomes.

Prashant Bhayani


Impacts of trade war: is the worst behind us?

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Adviser, Hong Kong


3 Reasons for the Risk-On Rally

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


US-China Trade: The “Phase One” trade deal. Why it matters?

Grace Tam explains why it’s a breakthrough and also shares our updated forecast for the global equities market.

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


Fed-Pause: The Federal Reserve rate cuts, what are the implications for markets.

This week Prashant Bhayani shares his views on the Federal Reserve rate cuts and the implications for markets.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Are Chinese property developers’ funding concerns overdone?

Restrictions by Chinese regulators on bond issuance by some developers has triggered concerns but the worries may be unfounded.

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


Is Brexit approaching the endgame?

Have chances of a “hard Brexit” significantly reduced?

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


Trade Truce... What Next?

The topic this week is a review of the trade truce finalised last Friday, and its potential implications on the global fiscal policy.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Don’t forget to focus on the red dot for defensive yield!

Singapore’s economy has been buffeted by the global slowdown but, as Prashant Bhayani explains, it continues to offer attractive potential to investors

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Drone Attack - The impact of Saudi Arabian oil facilities attack is short-lived thus far…

The impact of drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities is short-lived so far but what can we expect next? Prashant Bhayani shares what do we think of oil prices in the short and medium term.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


After a hawkish cut, the Federal Reserve rate expectations align directly with BNP Paribas forecasts

Here's quick review by Prashant Bhayani on the Federal Reserve meeting, the implications arising from it and what’s priced in by the markets.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


China Accelerates “Mid-Autumn Gifts” to the Market

Prashant Bhayani summarises some of the important initiatives that were announced in China this month.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Can Central Banks be Super-Heroes? Will it lead to Currency Wars?

With the end of the trade truce, the spotlight has burned bright again on the central banks as rate cuts accelerated around the globe. But can this lead to currency wars?

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Why Hong Kong’s long-term fundamentals and liquidity remain resilient

9 key reasons why Hong Kong’s long-term fundamentals and liquidity remain resilient

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Follow Twitter not Jackson Hole

As trade rhetoric overshadowed the Fed Summit last week, Prashant Bhayani reviews the takeaways and the market reaction.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Will Gold continue to shine?

4 reasons why gold will continue to shine (and why investors should accumulate gold on dips).

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


A global synchronized monetary easing is playing out

After the Fed delivered its first rate cut since 2008, central banks across countries have followed suit. Will this global monetary easing be sufficient to revive growth?

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


Trade Truce Ends with a Tweet

As the announcement to impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 bn of China’s imports ended a month-long truce, Prashant Bhayani highlights the takeaways and the key things to watch tactically.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Can the Federal Reserve Help Extend the Longest Economic Cycle in History?

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Discover why European Equities have had the best start of the year since 1998

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Cash is Not King! Cash is a Drag…This week we revisit how cash can be a drag in an investor’s portfolio.

In a year of strong year-to-date returns in both bonds & equities, Prashant Bhayani discusses why cash can be a drag in an investor’s portfolio. His mantra: Stay diversified, stay invested!

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Gold: Continue to Follow the Yellow Brick Road!

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


The trillion dollar question after the G-20 meetings: How long will trade tensions last?

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


FOMC Meeting: Powell throws in the towel

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Slow We Go! An update on the US economy

A quick update on the US economy following the weaker economic data and changing rate expectations.

Prashant Bhanyani, CIO Asia


Which countries may benefit the most from US-China trade tensions? Prashant Bhayani shares his views

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Why Treasury yields dropped sharply last week? How low can they go?

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


India gave Prime Minister Narendra Modi a strong second-term mandate. What are the implications for the Indian economy?

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Sino-US trade tensions could linger for longer. What are the implications?

As Sino-US trade tensions flare up again, we examine the potential impact of an ongoing tradewar on their respective economies.

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Adviser, Hong Kong


Market could be pricing a “trade deal” despite new tariffs kick in

Our Asia CIO dissects the #tradewar scenario for you

Prashant Bhayani, CIO, Asia


Diversification Strategies in May: Stay in May and Diversify Away

In this edition, our Asia CIO points out why this may be an excellent time to diversify your portfolio exposure.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO, Asia


China Update: Taking foot off the pedal but to maintain cruising speed.

Listen to a brief analysis by our Asia CIO after the politburo's review of the country's economy in China

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Contrarian Corner: Overweight European Equities

Underweight on European #equities? Maybe, not! The recent fund manager survey largely supports an underweight position however our Asia CIO builds a case for why a contrarian view merits attention.

Prashant Bhayani CIO Asia


Better Payrolls Soothe Growth Fears

US job growth remains strong in March, so what does is it mean for interest rates?

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


The yield curve is inverting! Should we be worried?

Against the background of a sharp drop in Treasury yields, our Asia CIO, discusses the utility of the yield curve as a recession indicator, and more.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO, Asia


The Fed’s dovish surprise triggers growth concerns

Amid rising market worries & falling #US yields, we examine the key reasons behind the announcement and what should investors keep an eye on!

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


Brexit deadline is near. Deal or no-deal?

In light of growing uncertainty and slowing growth, we look at the possible scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


In the context of a larger than expected tax cuts in China: Should we stay positive despite strong rebound?

Grace Tam, Chief Investment Advisor, Hong Kong


Feeling Springy?

In today’s podcast, we focus on the green shoots of stimulus impact in China.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO, Asia


If you want to understand global market movements focus on FINANCIAL CONDITIONS, not backward looking economic data.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO, Asia


Moving to Short-Term Neutral in Global Equities but what do we think about Asian assets in this context?

In this week's podcast we analyse how Asian equity and bond performance may be affected in the context of slowing US growth.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO, Asia


US Treasury Yields: How Low Can They Go?

US Treasury Yields: How low can they go? We examine the reasons behind the fall of the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.63% last week, and what can we expect going ahead.

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia


Are Emerging Markets starting to shine?

Is the increasing interest in EM assets a trend that will continue?

Prashant Bhayani, CIO Asia