#Market Strategy — 09.04.2020

Pandemic, economy, strategies… Decoding and sharing with our CIO

Florent Bronès

Chiara et Gérard El Allaf

Florent Brones, Chief Investment Officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, hosted a webinar on April 1, 2020 where he shared his analysis of the current macroeconomic situation and the challenges ahead. Among others, he answered questions from Anne-Hélène Nicolas, founder of Innovatys Consulting, and the members of French Founders, a club of CEOs, top executives, entrepreneurs and investors, who had connected for the occasion:

Where are we on the front line of this pandemic – the biggest exogenous shock for the markets for a century?

What is the economic impact of such a crisis? Is the service sector still playing its role of shock absorber?

What indicators are the financial markets looking to monitor the slope of the potential recovery?

What are the current implications for listed companies in terms of profits but also dividends?

What are the government reactions in terms of public policies, both monetary and fiscal?

What are the hypotheses for the duration of confinement, recessive impact and economic recovery?

Are we still in the hollow of the “U” pattern that reached its low point on March 23, 2020?

Will there be winners when the activity resumes? What structural changes will this bring about?

What are the risks to be considered around our scenario, on the oil market as on the credit market?

Are banks stronger than during the 2008 financial crisis? Will they all resist shock?

What should we think of the luxury, catering and travel sectors (airlines, hotels, etc.)?

In such a context, what investment strategy should be followed? What does “quality companies” mean?

Which sectors will drive the boom market tomorrow? Health ? Infrastructure? Digital consumption?

What changes are expected in certain asset classes such as real estate or private equity?

What are we doing well and better in this crisis compared to previous ones? What have we learned?

What is the "next world" that is taking shape? What adjustments can we already see?

More specifically on Europe, can we hope for a rebound or should we fear a new debt crisis?