Why Iran will not block the Strait of Hormuz

Since the US sanctions on Iran has been reimposed in 2018, only a few countries have been left willing to trade with Iran. Thus, Iran has increasingly turned to China, which became its predominantly trading partner. This heavy dependence on China is a main constraint for Iran´s options when it comes to retaliation against Israel (and potentially the USA).

Historically, blocking the Strait of Hormuz was a viable option, since it is a major chokepoint for Oil flows. While this hasn´t changed (still 20% of global oil needs to pass the strait), the throat which is chocked has changed. During the last couple of years, the US and its allies became less depended on Middle East oil, while this dependence increased heavily for China.

This means that any blockade of oil flows via the Strait would not only NOT hit the primary target but would mainly hurt Iran´s main trading partner and only remaining buyer of oil. Such a move would thus bring no advantage for the Iranian regime, it would rather weaken it as it would lead to the loss of much needed funds. The downside is huge though since this would be most likely the straw to break the camels back, sucking the US into the conflict.

Since OPEC still commands huge spare capacities which would make any spike in oil prices temporary anyways, there is no scenario in which Iran could gain anything from this move. Thus, assuming self-preservation is the major goal of the Iranian government, I think the chances for a blockade to happen are close to zero.