April 2019 : Investment Strategy Update

A further downward revision in global economic growth, but still no recession

For the second time this year, we have revised our economic growth forecasts downward in mature economies for 2019 and 2020. Industry is suffering globally, particularly because of trade conflicts leading to a contraction in world trade (excluding oil). Furthermore, investment programmes are being delayed by uncertain political issues, particularly in Europe (Brexit). Nonetheless, thanks to solid domestic demands, sustained by job creations that remain well-oriented, we are ruling out the risk of a recession. Inflation forecasts are also being revised downwards.