Market Daily

Equity Market Updates

Nestle (NESN SW)

Shares of Nestle rose +3.9% on Thursday after a solid FY4Q print, helped by strong sales and lower finance costs. The company now expects sales and profit growth for this year despite the biggest infant formula recall in its history. Nestle also plans to sell its remaining ice cream brands to its Froneri joint venture as part of CEO Philipp Navratil’s strategy to streamline the company’s portfolio.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 13 BUYS, 11 HOLDS, 2 SELLS, AVERAGE TP CHF85.3

Airbus (AIR FP)

Shares of Airbus fell -6.8% on Thursday after it softened its main jet production target, blaming engine maker Pratt & Whitney for failing to strike a crucial supply agreement. The news overshadowed solid 4Q25 profits, which exceeded market expectations.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 19 BUYS, 8 HOLDS, 2 SELLS, AVERAGE TP EUR227.9

Rio Tinto (RIO LN)

Shares of Rio Tinto dipped on Thursday after the company reported flat annual earnings that missed analyst expectations, dragged by its mainstay iron ore business which suffered from lower prices.  This was however partly offset by strong performance from the company's copper division.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 12 BUYS, 12 HOLDS, 2 SELLS, AVERAGE TP GBp6923.96

Walmart (WMT US)

Walmart on Thursday issued a full-year earnings forecast that missed expectations, citing a “hiring recession” and pressures on shoppers. The market was however relatively unsurprised by the conservative view considering that Walmart just had a new CEO. 4Q results also beat estimates in terms of both top- and bottom-line.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 47 BUYS, 3 HOLDS, 1 SELL, AVERAGE TP USD130.76

Earnings Announcements

Global Indices Changes (%)

Fixed Income Market Updates

European Bank Coco (AT1)

Marginally weaker trading session in European Bank AT1 space with prices around 0.10point lower in general. Investors were skewed towards selling with dealers happy to bid initially before risk sentiment faded a little towards market close. USD-denominated AT1 bonds outperformed the other currencies such as EUR and GBP while newer issues from BNP and ING were more active.    

Asia Investment Grade (IG)

Trading remained light as Hong Kong and China were still out for Lunar New Year holidays. There were small buying interest from asset managers in Korea quasi-sovereigns and financials, as well as SK Hynix. Japanese bank bonds such as Sumitomo and Mizuho were relatively active. In South East Asia IG space, Malaysia sovereign saw light buying. Overall, we still prefer financials given their pick-up over corporates.   

Asia High Yield (HY)

Again, another muted trading day in Asia HY space. We would like to remind investors that credit selection is still key especially in HY space. Idiosyncratic risks remain while relatively stable names are trading at very tight levels. We see better risk-reward in subordinated financial bonds and structured products.      

Forex Market Updates

USD

The US Dollar Index strengthened for a fourth straight session on Thursday after data indicated the economy was on stable footing, giving the Federal Reserve leeway to hold interest rates in check in the near-term. The Labor Department said weekly initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to an adjusted 206,000, below the 225,000 estimate. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the labor market has remained "pretty resilient" and that the central bank is close on both mandates of maximum employment and stable prices. Markets are not pricing in more than a 50% chance for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points from the Fed until its June meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Fed minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers were divided over where to take U.S. rates and suggested that the next chairman, due to start in May, would struggle to push through rate cuts.

The Dollar Index may see some near term consolidation around 97.00, albeit with a bias to the downside.

CAD

The Canadian Dollar steadied after six straight days of declines against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose and data showed that Canada's trade deficit narrowed in December. Canada's trade deficit narrowed to C$1.31 billion ($957 million) in December from a revised C$2.59 billion in November, as a jump in exports of unwrought gold helped lift total exports by 2.6%. For 2025, exports edged down 0.2%, weighed by reduced exports to the United States after it began a trade war. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which has shielded much of Canada's exports from U.S. tariffs, is set for review by a July 1 deadline. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 1.9% higher at $66.43 a barrel as traders worried about escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which have stepped up military activity in the oil-producing Middle East.

The Loonie may find itself trading in a range between 1.3500 to 1.3700 for now.

GBP

The British Pound weakened over the previous trading day, extending its recent slide as markets increased bets on earlier Bank of England rate cuts. The move came as investors continued to digest January CI, which slipped to 3.0% year-on-year and showed negative monthly readings in both headline and core inflation, reinforcing expectations that the BoE's next move is towards easing rather than further tightening. Later today, markets will watch UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations data as a read on manufacturing demand for fresh clues on growth and policy differentials that could influence the pound's next direction.

UK political uncertainty could continue to weigh on Sterling, although technical support around 1.3400 should hold in the near term.

XAU

Gold prices steadied on Thursday as investors assessed U.S.-Iran tensions, while a drop in U.S. jobless claims signalled labour-market stability ahead of inflation data later this week. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that it must reach a deal over its nuclear program or "bad things" will happen, and appeared to set a 10-day deadline before the U.S. might take action. Geopolitical and economic flashpoints tend to work in gold's favour, as the yellow metal is traditionally viewed as a safe store of value. Investors are now awaiting the release on Friday of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for further clues on the U.S. central bank's policy trajectory. Markets currently expect this year's first U.S. interest rate cut to occur in June, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding gold tends to do well in an environment of low interest rates.

Gold is likely to see a continuation of heightened volatility moving forward, with $4,680 a key technical support level.

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