Equity Market Updates
Market Daily
13/03/2026
Macro Update:
Oil surges back above $100 as the Middle East conflict escalates
Equity market weakened and bond yields rose as inflation concerns mounted on fears of a prolonged oil supply shock. President Trump said removing the Iran nuclear weapons is "of far greater interest and importance to me" than the oil price, while Iran's new supreme leader Khamenei said that they would seek to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and were prepared to open more fronts in the war.
Markets also pulled back the expectations to no Fed cut this year. For the Fed meeting next week, we expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep rates on hold and acknowledge that risks to inflation have increased on account of the Iran war. Meanwhile, the Fed may keep the economic forecasts largely intact given the mixed data from US labour market and the uncertainty over the war's length, severity and economic impact.
Main Upcoming Macro Indicators
Asian equities traded lower yesterday as surging oil prices subdued sentiment. Stocks in the region are also set for a choppy session today following Wall Street’s move lower.
Within Asia, we remain positive on companies with strong domestic exposure in sectors such as consumer discretionary and technology.
Amazon (AMZN US)
Amazon is reportedly moving its Prime Day sale event up to late June instead of July, marking a rare shift as the event has taken place in July since its launch in 2015, barring a change for two years during the COVID-19 pandemic. The schedule change will also move Prime Day sales to Amazon’s second quarter.
MARKET CONSENSUS: 77 BUYS, 5 HOLDS, AVERAGE TP USD282.75
Adobe (ADBE US)
Shares of Adobe slipped during after-hours trading on Thursday, even as it exceeded expectations in terms of Q1 results and guidance, as investors were surprised by long-time CEO Shantanu Narayen's announcement that he would step down from his position once a successor is named.
MARKET CONSENSUS: 22 BUYS, 17 HOLDS, 5 SELLS, AVERAGE TP USD393.05
Nissan Motor (7201 JP)
Nissan on Thursday announced that it reached an agreement to develop robotaxis in partnership with Uber and Wayve, aiming to roll out a pilot programme in Tokyo by late 2026. The partnership provides for Nissan Leaf electric vehicles equipped with Wayve’s self-driving technology to be made available to customers via Uber.
MARKET CONSENSUS: 2 BUYS, 13 HOLDS, 4 SELLS, AVERAGE TP JPY415.88
BMW (BMW GR)
BMW on Thursday said that it sees little room for improving profitability this year due to tariffs and rising competition in China. BMW forecasts automotive operating margin for 2026 to be between 4% to 6%. The automaker’s 4Q revenue also missed expectations, although operating income beat.
MARKET CONSENSUS: 12 BUYS, 10 HOLDS, 6 SELLS, AVERAGE TP EUR93.11
Earnings Announcements
US Market
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European Market
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HK - China Market
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Global Indices Changes (%)
Fixed Income Market Updates
Mixed markets in Asian bond markets with treasury yields pushing prices lower. Credit spreads remained fairly well behaved with small pockets of opportunity emerging. We understand the new issue pipeline remains strong but this will require a period of calm. We prefer to continue our defensive positioning at the shorter end of the curve.
European Bank Coco (AT1)
Prices of European bank AT1 bonds were down 0.125-0.5point as risk sentiment turned weaker on continued geopolitical uncertainty. Demand has started to slow although there was still buying from Asian investors especially in USD-denominated AT1 bonds. Investors' conviction felt rather limited. For investors who prefer to reduce duration, AT1 bonds with shorter call dates and high reset spread could still provide decent carry.
Asia Investment Grade (IG)
Asia IG space had a softer start yesterday with spreads around 1-3bps wider at market open but ended up mixed with Japanese corporates and auto sector underperforming and widened around 3bps in general. On the other hand, Chinese financial bonds fared better and managed to tighten around 2bps.
Asia High Yield (HY)
Asia HY market was generally weaker with prices unchanged to slightly lower in general. China industrials outperformed with demand seen in China Hongqiao bonds. Softbank complex was better bid as well. Given weaker macroeconomic backdrop, we prefer a more conservative approach and would avoid going down the credit curve for yield pickup.
Forex Market Updates
The US Dollar broadly strengthened as oil prices rose sharply after Iran stepped up attacks on transport facilities across the Middle East, fueling concerns of a prolonged conflict.
USD
The US Dollar index rose by more than 1.5% on Thursday and is close to its highest level since November, thanks in part to its safe-haven appeal, but also because the United States is a net energy exporter. Oil prices rose sharply as Iran stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, fueling concerns of a prolonged conflict and potential disruption to oil flows. The rapid increase in energy prices poses a threat to global growth, with economists warning that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would further amplify the economic impact. The dollar has Investors are also focused on next week's meetings at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to gauge how policymakers will react to the prospect of an energy-price shock.
Barring a rapid de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, the Dollar Index should remain well supported above 98.50 for the time being.
EUR
The Euro weakened near its weakest level this year as surging energy prices sparked worries about Europe's import-dependent economy and drove investors toward the safety of the greenback. The IEA on Wednesday agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, which would cover only about 20 days of supply lost due to the disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz, and will take weeks or months to reach markets. Risk appetite took a further hit after Trump's administration on Wednesday launched a new trade investigation into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners, in a move aimed at rebuilding tariff pressure after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the centerpiece of Trump's tariff program last month. Investors are also focused on next week's meetings at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to gauge how policymakers will react to the prospect of an energy-price shock. The swaps market on Thursday showed that traders expect the European Central Bank to raise rates possibly as soon as June.
The common currency looks to be testing the 1.1500 support level on broad Dollar strength.
CAD
The Canadian Dollar weakened on broad dollar strength, but its drop is capped by higher oil prices as Canada is one of the leading oil exporting countries. Though weaker than the previous trading day, Canadian Dollar has found some support from rising oil prices amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran as higher crude prices typically benefit Canda’s commodity linked economy. Analysts note that while oil prices trade above $80 per barrel is seen as a strong tailwind for Canda in terms of trade and investment outlook, it has not yet been fully reflected due to persistent uncertainty over trade negotiations and expectations that this could be a temporary shock. Meanwhile, with domestic inflation holding at 2.5% y-o-y, investors are increasingly pricing the possibility of a rate hike by the BoC later this year.
The Loonie is likely to be range-bound for the time being, with USDCAD trading between 1.3500 and 1.3650.
XAU
Gold prices fell more than 1% on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and diminishing hopes for a reduction in borrowing costs as the ongoing Iran war stoked inflation concerns. The dollar gained for a third consecutive session. The greenback is a competitive safe-haven asset, and a stronger U.S. currency makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Two tankers were ablaze in Iraqi waters in an apparent escalation in Iranian attacks that have cut off Middle East energy supplies. In reaction, oil prices rose sharply for the day. Iran will avenge the blood of its martyrs, keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and attack U.S. bases, new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said. Higher crude prices feed into inflation by raising transportation and production costs. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but high interest rates weigh on it by making yield-bearing assets more attractive.
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty should help the precious metal remain supported above $5,000.00 for the time being.
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