Market Daily

Equity Market Updates

Constellation Energy (CEG US)

Shares of Constellation Energy surged more than 10% on Monday after it reported Q3 results that blew past market expectations, helped by favourable market/demand conditions. Adjusted EPS for the quarter stood at USD5.06 vs. USD3.86 expected, while revenue was at USD9.55bln vs. USD9.40bln expected. The company also boosted its adjusted operating EPS guidance for the full year to USD12.5 – 12.8 from USD11.5 – 12.5 previously.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 23 BUYS, 4 HOLDS, 1 SELL, AVERAGE TP USD347.7

SpaceX (SPCX US)

SpaceX is planning a roughly USD24bln gas-fired power plant and super-compute facility in Starbase, Texas. According to a filing, SpaceX would construct, own and operate the facilities, which would allow the company to skip a years-long wait to plug a project into Texas’ main power grid.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 41 BUYS, 8 HOLDS, 2 SELLS, AVERAGE TP USD248.98

UniCredit (UCG IM)

Shares of UniCredit rose more than 6% on Monday amid record Q3 profit, which rose 24% YoY to EUR3.26bln (vs. EUR2.8bln expected) in the quarter. The Italian bank also upgraded its full-year guidance to “well above” EUR11.5bln and increased the planned interim dividend to EUR4.5bln. Looking ahead, UniCredit expects to control close to 50% of Commerzbank’s voting rights after outstanding regulatory processes are completed in late November 2026.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 16 BUYS, 6 HOLDS, 1 SELL, AVERAGE TP EUR98.83

SoftBank Group (9984 JP)

Softbank shares fell on Monday as its guidance upgrades failed to impress. The company now sees operating income at JPY1.16tln this year vs. JPY1.10tln previously, while net sales is expected to land around JPY7.90tln vs. JPY7.63tln previously. In terms of overall FY2Q results, Softbank’s net sales stood at JPY1.98tln vs. JPY1.87tln expected, while net income was at JPY214.5bln vs. JPY199.4bln expected.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 16 BUYS, 7 HOLDS, AVERAGE TP JPY8821.73

Earnings Announcements

Global Indices Changes (%)

Fixed Income Market Updates

European Bank CoCo (AT1)

Prices opened steady, with Rabobank and Banco BPM S.p.A. showing specific strength. The session remains calm with continued marginal buying and no new bond issues today. We anticipate more new deals will enter the market this week to build on the current stability.

Asia Investment Grade (IG)

The market tone is generally firmer, with notable buying interest in Chinese technology companies and Hong Kong assets. Australian bank bonds are also seeing steady demand from investors. We expect this positive momentum to continue as Asian buyers remain active.

Asia High Yield (HY)

Prices are holding steady, with buying seen in Primero Agila Ltd and GLP Pte. Ltd. However, Softbank has seen significant price drops, with some bonds trading at their lowest levels since late 2023. We anticipate that the appetite for other riskier assets will remain supportive in the near term.

Forex Market Updates

USD

The Dollar index gave back part of Friday’s rally on Monday. Reuters had it down 0.3% at 101.87 in New York, with some feeds showing a lower close nearer 101.7. Friday’s jump of around 0.7 to 0.8% was its biggest in nearly six months, after October payrolls beat and unemployment fell to 4.1%. Monday’s pullback reflected easing safe haven demand as AI stock rebound lifted sentiment, and crude fell about 4 to 5% as Trump downplayed renewed strikes on Iran and diplomacy hopes grew. Markets price roughly an 81% chance of a Fed hike at the 8 to 9 December meeting.

The US dollar sits between the support near 101.40 and Friday’s 102.30 peak as markets awaits CPI results today.
 

JPY
The Yen firmed on Monday, with the dollar down about 0.3% to 157.91 yen per Reuters, after Friday’s 0.6% jump. Japanese data supports the BoJ’s December hike case as nominal wages rose at their fastest pace in nearly three decades. Analysts expects USD/JPY to trade within 156 to 159 this week and to struggle to break above 158.50. It notes the US stance against further yen weakness is unlikely to change after the midterms, which gives little incentive to add fresh short yen risk.

The Yen may range between 156 to 159 in the near term.
 

AUD

The Australian dollar rebounded on Monday to roughly $0.6920. That followed a 2.5% fall last week to a seven month low of $0.6855 on Friday, when it tumbled more than 1%. The rebound was risk driven, helped by the AI stock recovery, but the RBA backdrop is softer than the headline as it hiked 25bp to 4.85% on 3 November in a 6 to 3 vote. It dropped an explicit reference to further rises, pushing AUD below 0.70 and reducing December hike odds. With a Fed hike about 81% priced for December, the rate differential argument has turned against AUD.

The Australian dollar at about 0.689 is rebounding from a seven month low, so the 0.6855 low is the key support. Upside is capped near 0.6950 to 0.7000 while the RBA sounds less hawkish and the Fed hike is priced.
 

XAU

Gold rose about 1% on Monday, with spot near $4,107 and December futures settling at $4,141.10. A softer dollar and a sharp drop in oil as shown with WTI down 4.5% to $86.71, Brent down 6% to about $92.43 eased inflation worries ahead of US CPI. That reversed most of Friday’s payrolls driven dip to around $4,050, which held as a floor. Gold is up about 4% on the week, from near $3,950 at last Monday’s close, after the midterm driven dollar selling. The Fed’s December hike about 81% priced is the known risk, and gold absorbed it on Friday without breaking $4,050.

Gold at about $4,110 has support at $4,050 and resistance at about $4,140 and then $4,200. Soft CPI and lower oil favour a push through $4,140, while a hot CPI that firms December puts $4,050 back in play.

Please read carefully the disclaimer here:

Asia Disclaimer: 
https://wealthmanagement.bnpparibas/asia/en/disclaimer1.html

Europe Disclaimer: 
https://wealthmanagement.bnpparibas/ch/en/disclaimer.html