Market Daily

Equity Market Updates

Moderna (MRNA US)

Shares of Moderna rose +5.3% on Friday after its 4Q25 results exceeded market estimates, with a narrower-than-expected net loss despite continued softness in COVID-19 vaccine demand. The company now targets a 10% revenue growth this year. Its upcoming cancer-vaccine trials will now be in focus as Moderna aims to diversify away from respiratory medications.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 4 BUYS, 20 HOLDS, 3 SELLS, AVERAGE TP USD40.86

Safran (SAF FP)

Shares of Safran jumped +8.3% on Friday after it improved its guidance for 2026 and raised its 2028 earnings targets, citing strength in its civil engines aftermarket and defence segments which should offset the impact of US tariffs and a corporate surtax extension. The company swung to profits in 2025, although overall results for the year missed expectations.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 17 BUYS, 7 HOLDS, 2 SELLS, AVERAGE TP EUR351.44

Capgemini (CAP FP)

Shares of Capgemini rose +5.1% on Friday after it reported a 4Q25 organic sales beat, underpinned by AI-related bookings. Free cash flow guidance missed estimates, however, as the company sees restructuring bringing EUR700mln of costs over two years. CEO Aiman Ezzat said the company is “pivoting” to facilitate AI adoption, expecting revenue growth between 6.5% and 8.5% in 2026.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 17 BUYS, 4 HOLDS, 1 SELL, AVERAGE TP EUR165.88

NatWest (NWG LN)

Shares of NatWest fell by -2.5% on Friday despite a 4Q25 results beat, as its return on tangible equity target at 17% for 2026 missed market expectations. The bank now aims to pare down costs through technology and boost earnings in the coming three years. It also recently announced a deal to buy wealth manager Evelyn Partners for GBP2.7bln.

MARKET CONSENSUS: 14 BUYS, 5 HOLDS, 2 SELLS, AVERAGE TP GBp721.71

Earnings Announcements

Global Indices Changes (%)

Fixed Income Market Updates

European Bank Coco (AT1)

European Bank AT1 bonds have been firm with very shallow dips. Even when spread products went wider a few basis points (bps), At1 has held through with +/- 50c. The only underperformers might be new issues and liquidity will be less especially for non-USD At1's. Any dips in the At1 space would be welcomed. 

Asia Investment Grade (IG)

Weaker session where bonds are marked down 2~5bp (basis points) wider in general. Alibaba headlines — bonds stabilized trading +8/+15 bps, with local support on vacation due to Chinese New YEar. In Southeast Asia, duration in particular felt slightly soft all across with dealers feeling heavy inventory wise. Benchmarks continued to be active two way with some buying seen in Petronas 5-10 year bonds. Beta names such as Genting and Resorts World continue to trade ok with slightly better buying seen from real money accounts. In Thai space, PTT Global Chemical versus Thai Oil Treasury decompression continues with more rotation into Thai Oil seen.

Asia High Yield (HY)

Asia HY traded mostly sideways today with flows quietening down into the Chinese New Year.  The underperformers were Indika Energy which is -0.5 pt lower after the issuer got downgraded to B1 by Moody's and Mongolian Mining which is also -0.5 pt (point) lower after a decent move lower in its stock. Post earnings, Softbank bonds are also lower, especially the longer dated, where its need to increase debt to fund its investments are highlighted.  

Forex Market Updates

USD

The US Dollar Index was little changed against a basket of its major peers at the end of the week after data pointed to a less-than-expected uptick in US inflation in January, suggesting that the Fed remains on course to cute rates later this year. The CPI report showed that underlying inflation pressures warmed up last month, likely as businesses pushed through start-of-the-year price increases for goods and services. The slowdown in overall inflation was cheered by the White House, with a spokesperson posting on social media that "America's economy is set to turbocharge even further through long-overdue interest rate cuts from the Fed". Elsewhere, ECB policymaker Nagel said that a loss of independence at the Fed could act as a “blueprint for politicians in other countries to pursue similar policies” and raise pressure on central banks all around the world, which could cause a rise in inflation globally. While central bankers, including ECB chief Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey, have welcomed the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, pressure on the US central bank is expected to remain high, especially if it continues to hold off on monetary easing until the middle of the year, as markets now expect.

The Dollar Index may see some near term consolidation around 97.00, albeit with a bias to the downside.

JPY

The Japanese Yen weakened slightly on Friday but still recorded its strongest weekly performance against the USD in 15 months as Japanese PM Takaichi’s resounding election victory allayed some investor concern about the government’s finances. Analysts say that “there may still be room for further Yen appreciation” as the election outcome might be seen as marking an end to the political instability that has persisted since last July. Alongside the JPY, Japanese stocks and JGBs also strengthened last week in an apparent vote of confidence for Takaichi’s plans for looser fiscal policy, which the PM has pledged will be achieved responsibly and not by issuing fresh debt. Elsewhere, BoJ board member Tamura said that Japan is “very close” to durably achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target, signalling the chance of a rate hike in the coming months. Tamura added that current interest rates remain “considerably distant” from levels deemed neutral for the economy, suggesting that it would take more than one rate hike before monetary policy begins to constrain growth.

USDJPY could see gradual weakness towards the 151.00 handle moving forward.

GBP

The British Pound posted modest gains on Friday to halt a three-day losing run against the USD, capping off a turbulent week in British politics that seemed to threaten UK PM Starmer’s hold on power. However, investor confidence in the UK took a hit after data showed that the British economy almost ground to a halt in Q42025. Analysts say that the “meagre pace” of 0.1% growth q/q is all the more concerning given that the UK economy has seen quarterly growth rates above 0.5% in just three of the last 15 quarters, and risks to the outlook continue to tilt firmly to the downside. Elsewhere, BoE Chief Economist Pill said that underlying inflation in Britain was settling at about 2.5% a year, higher than the central bank’s 2% target, which made it inappropriate to cut interest rates further. Addressing last month’s data showing that the UK jobless rate was at its highest in nearly five years, Pill said that the recent rise in unemployment could be due to structural factors, rather than a cyclical slowdown that could be ameliorated by rate cuts.

UK political uncertainty could continue to weigh on Sterling, although technical support around 1.3400 should hold in the near term.

XAU

Gold prices rose more than 2% on Friday as weaker-than-expected US inflation data offset concerns from strong jobs data earlier in the week and affirmed market expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year. According to LSEG data, market observers currently anticipate a total of 63bps in Fed rate cuts this year, with the first 25bps cut expected in July. The precious metal was also supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi saying that there were signs that the current Iranian regime was on the brink of collapse and that an attack could accelerate its demise. Pahlavi also said US military intervention in Iran could save lives and urged the Trump administration not to spend too long negotiating with Tehran’s clerical rulers on a nuclear deal. Elsewhere, silver prices also strengthened on Friday to stage a modest rebound from the previous day’s losses of around 7%.

Gold is likely to see a continuation of heightened volatility moving forward, with $4,680 a key technical support level.

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