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Five of our investment themes 2020 confirm their potential
Focus on the medium-term approach
In March, the lockdown of almost half the world's population plunged the global economy into an unprecedented recession, and global stock markets shed 34% in 30 days. Although they bounced back strongly after the announcement of government measures (gradual exit from lockdown and economic stimulus policies), the short-term environment remains uncertain. It is possible that equity markets will retest recent lows: the end of lockdowns will likely see an isolated and temporary outbreak of the virus. The challenges to implementing economic policies, the impact of ‘deglobalisation’ and renewed trade tensions between the United States and China are likely to see episodes of increased volatility.
As a result, our central medium-term economic scenario involves a gradual recovery in the second half of the year, continuing into next year (a U-shaped recovery).