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Gold: Target change

With Mattias Demets, Commodity Strategist, BNP Paribas Wealth Management
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Key Messages

1. Gold has performed weakly since the start of the US-Iran conflict in the Middle East, i.e. the end of February. Year-to-date the performance stands at a tepid -6%. 

2. Some oil-importing countries have sold gold to protect their local currencies, with Turkey being the standout example. However, other central banks continued to buy gold at a solid pace in the first half of 2026.

3. Retail investors were net sellers of gold-linked ETFs in the second quarter of 2026. A correction in short-term rates and a depreciation of the US dollar would help ETF flows to turn positive again.

4. We expect gold prices to recover in the second half of 2026 due to solid central bank buying and renewed retail investor interest. Although we are keeping our Positive view on gold, we have lowered our 12-month price target from USD 5,500 to USD 5,000 per ounce given the structural headwinds of a strong US dollar and higher short-term interest rates.