Economic activity should remain robust, supported by significant capital expenditure in AI, increased defence spending and infrastructure initiatives, particularly in the US and the eurozone.
While AI may offer long-term disinflationary benefits, its near-term impact is decisively inflationary, driven by supply constraints in energy and electronic components. Inflation should be generally lower next year.
Potential risks include geopolitical instability, the possibility of an "AI bust," and concerns over debt sustainability in major economies.