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Positive Seasonal Trends in the US Retail sector

Investment Strategy Podcast

Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Wealth Management

Positive Seasonal Trends in the US Retail sector

Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, and Stefan Kemper, Chief Investment Strategist, discuss the US retail sector's performance leading up to Christmas.

Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer
Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer
12-11-2024
8 mins

Key messages

  • Seasonality: The US retail sector historically performs well from November through to the end of the following April.
  • Lower gasoline prices, a strong job market, and above-average real wage growth boost consumer confidence and spending power.
  • A recent Gallup survey indicates Americans plan to spend nearly 10% more on Christmas presents this year, with many willing to spend over $1,000.
  • Despite underperformance earlier in the year, the sector's current valuation is attractive, suggesting potential for positive surprises during the holiday season.


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