The rise of tariffs, the reverse of globalisation and mounting conflicts have underlined the geopolitical importance of the security both in critical minerals and energy. Global demand for strategic metals and different sources of energy continues to grow, partly thanks to expanding technology investment, while supply remains constrained after years of underinvestment in new production capacity. Precious metals benefit from a different source of increasing demand, principally driven by the desire for de-dollarisation by sovereign nations and central banks outside the US, thereby driving gold and silver to new all-time highs in the face of limited primary supply growth.

As is often said in the commodities world, “the cure for low prices is low prices”. The 2008-2020 era of lower commodity prices has now set the scene for a prolonged period of higher commodity prices, in our view, until supply can finally react to stronger demand and higher prices. However, this will take years to reach, given the long lead time between rising commodity prices and capital investment in new mining and refining capacity.