Three men smiling while presenting the equity focus

Equity Focus - November 2026

Stephan Kemper​, Chief Investment Officer, BNP Paribas Wealth Management & Private Banking Germany​ and Alain Gerard, Senior Investment Advisor, BNP Paribas Fortis
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Summary

1. Turning Gridlock into Goldilocks. Divided US government has historically supported equities by limiting major policy changes and reducing uncertainty. The post-election sell-off reflects fears of tighter AI and data centre regulation. We expect local constraints to increase costs and delay some projects rather than halt the investment cycle.

2. A market reset. The sharp equity decline and exceptional volatility surge suggest capitulation. Similar episodes have historically preceded stronger medium-term returns, although they do not confirm that markets have bottomed. Lower technology valuations provide support, provided corporate earnings expectations hold up.

3. The AI investment case remains intact. Strong cloud revenue growth and continuing infrastructure plans support our outlook. We favour established cloud platforms and chipmakers with sound financing and sustainable cash flows over heavily indebted neocloud providers. Power infrastructure, cooling equipment and copper remain essential to expansion. We remain overweight US equities and the global AI build-out theme.

4. Earnings and sector positioning. US earnings remain strong, while European results have exceeded expectations, led by Energy. Growth should moderate rather than collapse. We see opportunities in Technology and Industrials following the correction and favour Healthcare among defensives. European Healthcare and Utilities offer attractive diversification. We remain cautious on US Utilities until regulation and electricity pricing become clearer.

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