Macroeconomic and geopolitical analysis
Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Group Chief Economist, BNP Paribas, Virginie Delaunay, Deputy CEO, BNP Paribas Wealth Management
At the beginning of the year, we had American exceptionalism on the one hand, and a more fragile situation in Europe and China on the other. Then in the spring, we were dealt a completely different set of cards. Finally, Europe and China have come out of America’s trade war relatively well. Clearly, the present economic and geopolitical context requires a sharp interpretation. Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Economist of the BNP Paribas Group, helps us to understand and navigate the fast-changing economic and recent upheavals.
Video Chapters:
The impact of the recent (and almost daily) tariffs policy announcements on the global economy, and by extension, global trade.
The role of China in the new paradigm shift, and the world’s dependency on critical raw materials, such as rare earth elements. Indeed, we are shifting from a unipolar, US-dominated world order, to a multipolar one where countries are seeking new alliances.
The status of some assets that were traditionally considered as “safe havens”, such as US government bonds and the US dollar, has been called into question, in the context of considerable uncertainty and huge volatility in financial markets fuelled by the American trade war and new distrust of investors.
Are all the signals finally in place for a European economic awakening? After several decades of fiscal austerity, Europe decided to change gears in the spring. Massive investments will be made in the European defence sector, and Germany will implement a vast infrastructure spending plan.
Impact on the markets, oil and gas prices, and more broadly, inflation with the envisaged return of peace to Europe and the potential end of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
