Investing in private assets today means securing performance, stability and diversification while actively financing the real economy. In our present world, it is a strategic choice for the future.
Claire Roborel de Climens
Global Head of Private and Alternative Investments
Private Real Estate: After the dowturn, we see signs of a recovery
The sharp rise in interest rates from 2022 onwards mechanically weighed on asset valuations, with declines of up to 20–30% in certain segments such as offices.
But by as we approach the end of 2025, several indicators point to a turnaround. Here are three key signals signs:
A more favourable monetary environment
Since June 2024, monetary easing has given the market a fresh impetus. The stabilisation of interest rates, combined with the sharp correction in real estate valuations, is now creating conditions that are conducive to asset revaluation and a recovery in transactional activity.
A rebound in transaction volumes
In the first quarter of 2025, volumes increased by more than 30%* compared to the previous year, and the trend continued in the second quarter. Even more significant: after a period when transactions exceeding €100 million were rare, 2025 marks the return of deals above €1 billion—a strong sign of renewed liquidity.
The return of major institutional investors
These players are targeting high-potential sectors:
- Managed rental segment (student residences, co-living spaces, senior housing): structural demand driven by urbanisation and restricted access to land.
- Urban logistics: boosted by e-commerce, which requires three times more logistics space than an in-store purchase.
- Data centres: at the heart of digitalisation, a strategic sector for the coming decade.
Is now the time to Invest?
According to Maxime, late 2025 and early 2026 could be windows of opportunity to invest. The best opportunities arise during cycle turnarounds: some managers are already buying at significant discounts with clear value-creation strategies.
The market has not yet regained explosive momentum, but conditions favour buyers. It is at times like this that the best long-term performance is built.
*Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. BNP Paribas makes no guarantee and gives no assurance regarding the success, profitability, return, or expected or projected performance of any investment.
Maxime Jouret
Deputy Global Head of Private Investments
In an uncertain economic environment, Private Infrastructure emerges as a strategic investment solution
Private infrastructure offers investors robust diversification, stable performance, and direct exposure to sustainable megatrends that are transforming our daily lives.
A resilient and promising asset class
- Diversification: With low correlation to equity markets, private infrastructure helps smooth economic cycles.
- Inflation Protection: Revenues are often indexed, providing a natural hedge against monetary erosion.
- Long-Term Visibility: Infrastructure projects span 10 to 30 years, ensuring stable cash flows.
Three tailwinds
Digitalisation
The rise of artificial intelligence and digital usage (for example, a ChatGPT inquiry consumes ten times more energy than a Google search) is fuelling demand for data centers, telecom networks, and power infrastructure.
Electrification
The energy transition is accelerating in transportation, heating networks, and industrial processes, increasing the need for renewable energy and smart grids.
Urbanisation
Cities are ever more densely populated and more connected. Consequently, there is a growing need for investment to upgrade water, transport, energy and telecom networks.
A favourable political and economic context
- In the US, despite debates around the Inflation Reduction Act, plans like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act ($1.2 trillion) have been renewed.
- In Europe, Germany has announced it is earmarking €500 billion to infrastructure.
- The G20 estimates global financing needs will reach $15 trillion by 2040.
Conclusion: a strategic opportunity for investors
Private infrastructure meets a dual requirement: financial performance and sustainable impact. It captures opportunities linked to changing consumption patterns while actively contributing to financing the real economy.
*Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. BNP Paribas makes no guarantee and gives no assurance regarding the success, profitability, return, or expected or projected performance of any investment.
Patrick-Henri Gest
Head of Private Real Estate & Infrastructure
Why Is Private Debt here to stay?
Since its emergence in the 1980s, it has experienced remarkable growth in recent years—rising from $300 billion in 2010 to over $1.700 billion trillion by the end of 2024* (Source: Preqin).
This expansion stems from banks refocusing after the 2008 Great Financial Crisis in 2008 and the ability of private debt funds to provide flexible, tailor-made financing solutions for businesses.
Unlike speculative bubbles, the growth of this asset class addresses structural, long-term financing needs.
The strengths of Private Debt
For borrowers: speed of execution, certainty of financing terms and conditions, and a long-term partnership with lending funds.
For investors:
- Attractive yields: higher rates than traditional listed bonds, in exchange for lower liquidity and greater higher credit risk.
- Diversification: an asset class uncorrelated with public markets, helping reduce portfolio volatility.
- Financing the real economy: direct investment in companies and infrastructure projects.
Is now the right time to invest?
We believe so.
Private debt focuses on resilient sectors such as healthcare and technology, which are less sensitive to economic cycles and tariffs.
Private debt is a floating-rate asset class. In addition to a benchmark rate, it offers a credit premium, in other words, the spread. Despite recent cuts in policy rates, they remain high compared to the past decade—supporting attractive returns for private debt in 2025.
Conclusion
Private debt stands out as a long-term source of financing for businesses and a compelling opportunity for investors: superior returns, diversification, and a tangible contribution to the real economy.
Emmanuel Guéneau
Senior Private Equity, Private Debt Investment Specialist
The slowdown in disposals in 2024, and thus lower distributions to investors was a cyclical situation, driven by weaker economic growth and geopolitical uncertainty.
Since mid-2025, a clear recovery has emerged, and some investors are increasing their allocations to private equity.
Why does Private Equity outperform over the long term?
Historically, across market cycles, Private Equity has delivered returns that exceed those of public markets. This outperformance is driven by three key factors:
Operational value creation
Private Equity funds act as active shareholders. They support companies in strategic development—acquisitions, international expansion, innovation, and strengthening management teams. This structured approach continues even during periods of volatility.
Long-Term investment horizon
The management of private companies do not have the constraint of reporting quarterly earnings or watching their share price. This means that they can entirely focus on creating value and making long-term decisions without the pressure of short-term market expectations.
Access to exclusive opportunities
Private Equity provides access to a broader investment universe than public listed markets, particularly in innovative SMEs and middle-market companies. These businesses are often sector leaders but underrepresented in stock indices.
Example: In the US, only 13% of companies generating more than $100 million in revenue are publicly listed; in Europe, that figure is only 4%.
(Source: S&P Capital IQ)
Long-term conviction
Despite short-term challenges, Private Equity fundamentals remain strong. Historically, long-term conviction strategies have delivered their best performance in uncertain environments.
Claire Roborel de Climens
Global Head of Private and Alternative Investments
Global expertise and local insights: let our team guide you
At BNP Paribas Wealth Management, we have extensive experience in private markets. Our team rigorously analyses and selects funds, and carries out post-investment monitoring. We emphasise the importance of conducting thorough due diligence and understanding the specific terms and conditions of each fund. Moreover, we advise our clients to make investments that align with their expectations, investment profile and knowledge of private markets.
For more information, please contact your relationship manager.
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