Tactical Idea Update

Symrise AG

Tactical Idea Update

Through 2022-23, the Ingredients sector has been plagued by a combination of destocking, inflation and rising interest rates. With headwinds easing and structural growth drivers intact, we think now is a good time to revisit the space - Symrise is a top sector pick.


Symrise has been no exception with shares down 25% from the 2022 peak despite fairly resilient earnings and still outperforming peers on organic growth. Symrise is a top pick thanks to its differentiated and sector leading organic growth profile. We see both structural and ‘cyclical’ drivers of margin expansion in 2024 which will help to narrow the gap to best-in-class peer Givaudan.
Shares have pulled back to 25x 2024 PE, at an 19% discount to its LT history and 14% discount to Givaudan. With superior growth and narrowing margin gap, we believe this discount is unjustified. 

 

Symrise AG - BNPP WM – BUY, TP 115€


Accompanying charts and tables for better illustration…

Symrise has just broken out of the 200d MAV


EQUITY INVESTMENT UPDATE 

SYMRISE AG                                                                           BUY? TP 115EURO                                                            6/10 

Investment Case - SYMRISE AG 


Company profile - Symrise is a diversified chemical manufacturer enjoying a top three market position in the flavour and fragmance idusty. Its Scent & Care business produces fragances for home and personal care applications and perfumes, as well as comestic ingredients. Flavor & Nutrition sells a variety of flavors (sweet, savoury & dairy) used in food & beverages, as well as pet food palatability enhancers and probiotics. 

Organic growth still a standout - Symrise has delivered an organic topline CAGR of 7% over the past decade, outpacing the Speciality Ingredients space and closest peer Givaudan at 5%. With a strong core F&F business, targeted growth adjacencies, Symrise can comfortably sustain a sector leading organic growth rate. We forecast >6.5% on avregae to 2026. 

More than just pet food - Pet food will continue to be a strong growth driver and differentiator for Symrise, growing at 7ù-8% on average. We see further penetration opportunities in emerging markets and in pet cas as 'COVID pets' age and require more specialised nutrition. Symrise's strategic backward integration in both pet and F&F will also be a differentiator and a barrier to entry. 

But more to go to bridge the gap on margins - One of the longs tanding debates has been Symrise's inferior margin profile vs best-in-class peers. We see margin support from structural (mix, self-help) and 'cyclical' (input deflation) drivers in 2024. Growth will always be a key priority, but we also see opportunities for efficiencies which, combined with mix, should support our ~230bps margin expansion by 2026 vs 2023. 

Context - With sector headwinds easing (destocking, inflation and rising interest rates) and structural growth drivers intact, we think now is a good time to revisit the sector. Symrise is a top pick thanks to its differentiated and sector leading organic growth profile. We see both structural and 'cyclical' drivers of margin expansion in 2024 which will help to narrow the gap to best-in class peer Givaudan. 

Valuation looks compelling vs peers - Shares have pulled back to ~25x 2024 PE, at an 19% discount to its LT history and 14% discount to Givaudan. With superior growth and narrowing margin gap, we believe this discount is unjustified. We keep Symrise in our Buy List as we consider Symrise as a strategic leader in the sector thanks to its differentiated portfolio. We have buy opinion with EU 107 target price which can expand further as margins increase and a new ordering cycle comes through. 

If you require further assistance or information, or want to benefit from a tailored advice,   please contact your dedicated Investment Manager or Investment Advisor.


ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOOD GOVERNANCE (ESG) ANALYSIS (2)

E: Symrise performs significantly above peer average for the Environment pillar. Symrise has achieved its goal to reduce GHG emissions (scope 1 and 2) by 33% compared with 2010 in 2020. Between 2016 and 2020, Scope 3 GHG emissions were reduced by 36%. Symrise commits to reduce absolute scopes 1 and 2 GHG emissions 80% by 2028 from a 2020 base year. Symrise commits to reduce absolute scope 3 GHG emissions from purchased goods and services 30% by 2030 from a 2020 base year. Symrise commits to continue annually sourcing 100% renewable electricity through 2030. The target boundary includes biogenic emissions and removals from bioenergy feedstocks. The company has set up adequate green procurement initiatives. Furthermore, a moderate portion of the company's annual revenues are derived from sustainability-related products or services.

S: The company performs above peer average for the Social pillar. The company discloses a general statement on freedom of association. In regards to diversity initiatives, it has established an adequate programme. It conducts diversity monitoring; conversely, it does not disclose diversity training initiatives. Overall, Symrise’s employee health and safety (H&S) management system is strong as well as it human capital management programme, that includes initiatives for talent development and retention (supported through flexible working time, pension plan and health insurance, and wellness programmes). The company provides its employees with written procedures on hazardous substances handling as well as with regular training. Symrise also has provisions regarding contractor safety and performs audits for suppliers that pose an especially notable risk in this area.

G: The company performs above peer average for the Governance pillar. ESG reporting is very strong and follows recognized best practices. In addition, a management committee is in place to oversee ESG issues. Based on available evidence, a part of executive remuneration is explicitly linked to sustainability performance targets. The company has set up strong whistleblowing mechanisms. For instance, it has an independent reporting hotline that is available 24/7, permits anonymous reporting and whistleblower reports are treated confidentially.

GLOSSARY 

(1) RISK SCORING - SUMMARY RISK INDICATOR

A summary risk indicator (SRI) is assigned to all financial instruments based on estimated credit risks and market risks (PRIIP methodology). The SRI can take any value from 1 (lower risk products) to 7 (higher risk products). It is obtained directly from the product manufacturer or determined by the bank and may change over the product lifetime depending on market conditions.

(2) SUMMARY SUSTAINABILITY INDICATOR

BNP Paribas methodology allows to compare companies’ Environmental, Social and Good Governance (ESG) performances among their peers within their sub-sectors. For each company, a score on ESG criteria is determined by BNP Paribas Asset Management’s dedicated analysts who systematically assess their commitments and practices in Environment (e.g. climate change), Social issues (e.g.. human resources management) and Good Governance (e.g.. Board members’ independence and expertise). All companies are scored from 0 to 100 and then distributed across deciles by sector and geography, and then redistributed on WM 0 to 10 clover scale (10 being the best and 0 the worst).

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