2026 is proving to be another banner year for commodities. The Bloomberg equal-weight commodities index has risen 23% since the start of the year, following a 21% return for calendar 2025. All four main subindices are contributing to this strong performance, led by energy (oil & gas), but with industrial metals also performing strongly thanks in large part to aluminium (the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced global aluminium supply by c. 9%).
While an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz should trigger a near-term cooling of energy prices and thus a potential pull-back in commodity indices, we believe that the current bull market in place since early 2020 can continue in the medium term and maintain positive views on both precious metals (gold, silver) and strategic industrial metals (copper, aluminium). The global metals & mining sector is also well placed to continue to outperform the broader stock market on higher commodity prices, effective capital discipline and the potential for further sector consolidation.
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