May 2019 : Investment Strategy Update
- No major changes to our investment strategy, we recommend taking some profits and are neutral on equity markets in the short term. The political risk has not disappeared (international trade, US, China, Europe, Brexit risks, European elections).
- We remain positive on stock markets, in the long term as our base-case scenario for 2019 excludes the risk of a recession including in the eurozone. The rise in profits continues, albeit at a slower pace, particularly in the United States. Interest rates are historically low as inflation remains timid. The multi-year bull market in stock markets will continue beyond the short-term consolidation that we are expecting. But volatility will remain higher at the end of this market cycle.
- Our positive regional equity recommendations are unchanged for emerging markets (especially Asia), the eurozone and Japan. We are neutral on the United States, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. We have become neutral on European industrials and US energy, Poland and Hungary.